The day’s main event is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first interest-rate decision. No change in rates is expected, which means markets will be scanning the policy statement, economic projections and the post-meeting press conference for cues.
Here is what could elicit a risk-on, positive reaction from bitcoin
The dot plot: This is a graphical representation of where individual Fed members see interest rates heading. Fed funds futures currently price in an 80% chance of a 25 basis-point increase by December. That’s the reference point for reading the plot: If it shows fewer than 80% of members projecting a hike by December, the BTC price could react positively.
Warsh’s take on rates and inflation: Will the Trump nominee break from market expectations and strike a dovish tone, citing recent oil prices and AI-driven disinflation to lay the groundwork for the rate cuts the administration wants? Or will he fall in line with current market pricing? In the former case, BTC could once again react positively.
